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Predicting Polls - Solving Sudoku
 
Hyderabad: "What is right is often forgotten by what is convenient"

Putting up a brave front in the face of adversity is an understandable feature of competitive politics—and all parties have taken recourse to it at one time or another.

And K. Chandrasekhar   Rao, popularly known as KCR, the caretaker CM of Telangana had taken a recourse to put up a brave face by going for early elections in the state.

In doing so he made Psepholigists to sweat it out to predict the results.

At the above background, what does the crystal ball say about KCR's fortunes in the elections, particularly in the face of his bravado that his party would win 106 seats?

As things stand, the Early Elections are turning out to be a sort of " Sudoku" puzzle to the Psepholigists, as a slew of contradictory factors are perplexing both the voter and the Psepholigists alike*. 

The election trends say it won't be a cake walk for TRS as Prajakutami allies have picked up strength significantly in the past few weeks.

This has led to a highly competitive situation where there are multi-lateral contests and any winner gets a small majority.*

The role of Muslims, who constitute over 12 percent of the state’s 3.51 crore population, may become crucial in what appears to be a straight fight between the TRS and the People’s Front.

Similarly, Dalit voters are largely disenchanted with KCR.

Two and half months ago, the TRS enjoyed a clear edge over the Congress party in rural Telangana.

Poll analysts put forward the theory though the TRS  has taken all precautions to safeguard its winning prospects, the dominance of one single family that is of KCR’s has become the party’s disadvantage now. 

The over confidence of KCR family in occupying all the space in the party’s main activities has triggered silent resentment which turned against and fuelled the anti-incumbency factor.

On the other hand , the ‘Prajakutami’ allies are displaying a rare show of unity and coordination leaving no chance for the ruling TRS to take advantage of possible cracks, if any, in their alliance.

The coming-to-fruition of such an alliance despite initial bickering has certainlys intensifed  the political climate.

The resultant perception across political and public life is that TRS will not have a cake walk as KCR repeatedly asks everyone to believe.

The claim of KCR of winning more than 100 seats appears a figment of the imagination dished out primarily as part of mind games to confuse the Opposition. ..

...Or is it going to be a reality, which Psepholigists so far failed to perceive.

If the final figure is anywhere near the claim, it will be certainly a miracle.

All pre-poll reports predict a close fight between TRS and PF and in a such scenario 

even a small number of votes split by the other parties like BJP, BLF, BSP can prove to be decisive in defining the mandate.

The campaign by Chandrababu Naidu, on other hand, resulted  in the rise of the Telangana sentiment in the core areas of Telangana. 

As the polling day neared, KCR 's powerful speeches countering Naidu or his hectic campaigning is beginning to have an impact and the voters  began to sympathy towards show him*.

However, while KCR enjoyed a positive image, TRS candidates look relatively weaker when compared with candidates of the Opposition combine in several constituencies. 

Similarly, there is neither strong anti-wave  against nor a huge sympathy for KCR.

KCR is also playing the victim card appealing to the voters that Congress has ganged up with TDP and two others to defeat him.

Thus, though, to predict the outcome might be solving a Sudoku puzzle, the trend in the last two days indicates that KCR would retain power with a slim majority.

Thus, AHL predict (+ or - 3 seats):

TRS – 48

MIM- 7

BJP – 2

Congress — 39

TDP- 07

Close: 16


Tags: KCR, Telangana, TRS, CM KCR, Congres, Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, BJP, PM Modi, Early Elections, Elcion Survey
 

    
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