Hyderabad, Feb 20: “POLITICS IS LIKE A WOMAN ALWAYS AN ENIGMA AND AN INTRIGUE”

The mood and content of the Politics in Andhra Pradesh matched the thrills and suspense of an Alfred Hitchcock’s suspense thriller. In the public school of politics in AP, there is enough political intrigue for those who wanted to relish a political thriller. The only difference from the Hitchcock’s masterpieces is that in the political thriller of AP each and every character that has negative shades and dubious distinctions has all the chances of emerging a hero in the climax. Here the more the character sins the more it gets venerated. Here you have a “murdered body” but no murderers.

After all, the Telugus (the world’s best known sentimental beings) covet their political heroes to masquerade as Robin hoods, never mind even if they loot public money and take the public for a fancy ride on false promises. Despite, widespread cynicism, even despair, about the way the state is being run, there is also optimism among the people that things are about to change. 

The Telugus kept their hopes in the present day Robin Hood   who is carrying the legacy of “Peoples’ leader” on his shoulders. They look at his future forgetting what he was in the past. They hardly care how much illegal property he amassed, may amass in the years ahead. There is abstemiousness in their hopes as he is a crowd puller. For them corruption is not an election issue, as he represents a change and perceived to be a no puppet in the hands of Congress high-command. He symbolizes rebellion. And the oppressed Telugus are carving for such leader.

This is where the Jagan’s Factor kicks in. He is no Barak Obama of Andhra Pradesh and may not have blessed with oratorical skills of KCR, but a larger constituency of people perceives that there is a level of determination in whatever he has undertaken so far. 

The latest decision of a Division Bench of AP High Court to dismiss the writ petition filed by YS Vijayamma, honorary President of YSRCP seeking CBI enquiry into alleged disproportionate assets of CBN, even as the Endeavour of CBI to speed up its enquiries against Jagan and raid his properties is on, has been enthralling the masses and became an instrument of entertainment to raise the TRPs of vernacular channels of electronic media in AP. 

Both the above developments have given a scope for a rise in speculations that the arrest of YS Jagan is imminent at anytime now or in first week of April’2012 in the illegal assets case leveled against him.

The conjecture on the imminent arrest of YS Jagan has thrown many intriguing questions which includes the most politically correct one on “What lies ahead for Jagan and his Party?”

Since the time Jagan has rebelled and floated a new political outfit he had become a bitter pill to congress. The congress was on the defensive and to recall an old Wodehouse line, was in the process of effortlessly putting its foot in the mouth in dealing with him.

Even as the CBI is closing in on him, the Congress is still apprehensive of ramifications of disqualifying its MLAs loyal to Jagan and facing subsequent by-polls. Nothing explains better on Congress’ fears than its continued efforts to dodge the disqualification and its tacit acceptance that Jagan has indeed became a political force to reckon, despite making tall claims that he would be treated like all opponent political parties. 

While, the Congress is still unable to assess on how it can overcome the challenge posed by Jagan and left everything to the results of CBI enquiry to decimate him, the decision of AP high Court to dismiss writ petition of YS Vijayamma gave much needed ammunition to CBN and TDP to take on Jagan in the battle front.

The scenario now fits Jagan against CBN and Congress standing on the sidelines, nowhere in the contest. What Congress is forgetting that a strong YSRCP would be a buffer to counter TDP from being an alternative and can be an ally in future, if needed? Instead, Congress felt it was time to rein Jagan and create problems to him so that he would be busy to come out of the problems, than consolidate politically and conspire against it to topple its government in the state.

It only underlines Congress’ persistent refusal to read the writing on the wall since the emergence of Jagan as a force in AP politics. This has been characteristic of Congress’ approach rushing to combat Jagan from frontlines and receding in the wake of internal dissent and apprehending counter-politics from supporters of Jagan.

Congress awaits CBI to arrest Jagan with tangible and corporeal evidences; so that it can effectively overcome the sympathy wave, if any that might be witnessed as a result of his arrest without any concrete evidences as such arrest might be conceived as political vendetta on part of Congress.

Exactly, it is where Congress is appeasing Chiranjeevi to mobilize Kapu votes and encouraging some sort of Caste Politics to counter both Jagan and CBN. On the other hand, it has also kept Telangana issue on the boil, a strategic ploy, to confine both Jagan and CBN to one part of the state.

While, both the regional and caste issues might play a significant role in the run up to the elections, will Jagan be able to keep his flock together till 2014 elections, an enigmatic question for which time would only answer. 

A jailed Jagan might not be in a position to sustain the sympathy.

The key will be to sustain the momentum till there is a critical mass of elected people’s representatives on his side. After that, a shot at power becomes realistic. That’s where the coming local body and By-elections become critical.

What probably will become the most critical determinant will be Jagan’s ability to continue his rapport with people, highlight peoples issues and travails and make the right moves. He should learn lessons from the inability of Chirnajeevi to build a reservoir of political goodwill.

Last but not the least, he will need men who will stay with him through thick and thin….no sycophancy, no bluster…only concerted political action…and most importantly, must make as little enemies as possible.