Exit poll: TVK emerges as biggest challenger in TN

Actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has emerged as the biggest challenger in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, even leading the tally in the latest Axis My India exit poll, signalling a dramatic shift in the state’s political landscape.

According to the survey, TVK is projected to win between 98 and 120 seats in the 234-member Assembly, putting it ahead of both the ruling DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (DMK+) and the AIADMK-led alliance.

The numbers suggest that Vijay’s party could either emerge as the single largest force or play a decisive role in government formation. The DMK+ is estimated to secure between 92 and 110 seats, placing Chief Minister M.K. Stalin’s alliance in a close second position.

While the ruling front remains competitive, the projections indicate that it may struggle to cross the majority mark of 118 on its own.

Meanwhile, the AIADMK-led alliance (AIADMK+), which includes the BJP and other partners, is forecast to win only 22 to 32 seats, marking a sharp decline and pushing it to a distant third position in the contest.

The exit poll, based on a comprehensive survey of 44,460 respondents across all 234 constituencies, also points to a near-equal vote share battle between TVK and the DMK+. Both are projected to secure around 35 per cent of the vote share, while the AIADMK+ is expected to trail with about 23 per cent.

A deeper look into voter trends reveals that TVK has made substantial inroads among younger voters, particularly first-time voters aged 18–19, where it commands overwhelming support. In contrast, the DMK+ continues to draw strength from older voter segments, indicating a generational divide in political preferences.

Adding to TVK’s momentum, actor Vijay has emerged as the most preferred Chief Ministerial candidate, securing 37 per cent support, narrowly ahead of M.K. Stalin at 35 per cent.

AIADMK leader Edappadi K. Palaniswami trails with 22 per cent, reflecting the shifting political mood in the state.

The survey also underlines a strong appetite for change among voters, with 35 per cent citing it as the key reason for their choice — a sentiment that appears to have worked in favour of TVK’s rise.

With no alliance comfortably crossing the majority mark, the projections suggest a highly competitive and potentially fragmented mandate.

As Tamil Nadu awaits the official results on May 4, the Axis My India exit poll indicates that the 2026 election could mark the beginning of a new political era in the state.