India in Al-Qaeda’s Crosshairs

On the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, Al-Qaeda released a video featuring Hamza bin Laden, son of slain former Al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden.

The release appeared to be a calculated attempt to revive the Bin Laden legacy within the terror outfit, overcome its fragmented leadership structure and bring its multiple command centres under a unified command.

Intelligence agencies across the world are closely monitoring Al-Qaeda's activities, with inputs suggesting a gradual resurgence of the terror network.

An Intelligence Bureau official said that while Al-Qaeda had initially set out to take on America and European nations, it began to realise it was futile battling against superpowers.

When Al-Qaeda launched its sub-continent edition known as Al-Qaeda in the Sub-Continent, it said that it was taking on the Indian government directly. Over time, it realised that it was impossible to take on the mighty Indian state, and this led to the outfit altering its game plan.

“In recent communications, Al-Qaeda through its various communication channels has been propagating heavily for the revival of the vanguard doctrine,” the official said.

The revival of this doctrine suggests that the battle may not be directed at the Indian State through confrontation. Al-Qaeda recognises that engaging Indian security agencies in a conventional fight would be futile. Instead, the focus could shift towards high-profile, spectacular attacks on the lines of the September 11, 2001, strikes in the US, the official said.

Officials say that while planning attacks is one part of the problem for the agencies, the main issue lies in Al-Qaeda’s plan to force the Indian state into battling against Islamic nations. This would help Al-Qaeda reach out to the local population and radicalise them.

Another official said that in the current scenario where protests are erupting almost across the globe, including in India, the “vanguard doctrine” of Al-Qaeda would come into play.

“The outfit would use its media channels to spread disinformation, promote its violent ideology and circulate propaganda. The aim is to incite people and gradually draw them into the radicalisation process,” the official added.

The official further said that this dates back to Al-Qaeda’s original strategy that it came up with in 1998. It was that year that Al-Qaeda coined the term al-Qaeda al-Sulbah (The Solid Base) to describe the “vanguard doctrine.”

The idea was to transform localised issues into global campaigns. Each of these campaigns would be motivated by nothing other than religion.

The idea is to pick on local issues taking place in other parts of the world and then give a religious spin to it, so that it becomes a global campaign, the official said.

Counter-terrorism experts say that Bin Laden had built Al-Qaeda on the “vanguard doctrine.” However, following his death, Al-Qaeda gradually changed its modus operandi, whereby it began focusing on taking on superpowers. However, that strategy fell flat as it realised that taking on mighty nations would not work. Further, Al-Qaeda was also bogged down by the violent Islamic State, which began gaining traction globally.

The experts also say that the Indian security agencies, in coordination with their counterparts abroad, need to keep a very close watch on the developments taking place within Al-Qaeda.

“The progress is slow, and the outfit is taking its time. On the surface, it would appear as though the outfit is in retreat mode. However, there is a dangerous undercurrent whereby the outfit is playing a big game which would eventually have a devastating effect on society,” the experts warn.

Al-Qaeda, for its India operations, would focus heavily on issues that are sensitive in nature, with an extensive focus on the northeastern states and Jammu and Kashmir. It would look to take advantage of even small protests and then give it a religious spin before trying to make it into a global issue, an official said.