Next Dalai Lama Beyond China's Control: Report

China’s concerns over the next Dalai Lama stem from the reality that he will not emerge in Beijing’s “shadow” and will be identified through spiritual tradition rather than party decree, thus posing a serious challenge to the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) authority, a report has stated.

Beijing has no control in the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama — and that loss of influence unsettles Chinese authorities more than they are willing to acknowledge, Khedroob Thondup, the nephew of the Dalai Lama, wrote in the ‘European Times'.

“For decades, the Chinese Communist Party has tried to bend Tibetan Buddhism to its will. It has sought to control religious institutions, installed pliant clerics, and declared itself the arbiter of reincarnation. Yet the one succession it cannot control—the next Dalai Lama—has become a source of profound unease in Beijing. The Party knows that legitimacy in Tibetan Buddhism is not manufactured in Zhongnanhai but recognised in monasteries, diaspora communities, and the hearts of millions of believers worldwide," Thondup detailed.

“The precedent of the Panchen Lama looms large. In 1995, Beijing detained and disappeared from public view the boy recognised by the Dalai Lama as the 11th Panchen Lama and replaced him with its own candidate. Thirty years later, the state-appointed Panchen Lama remains a figure of ceremonial utility but little spiritual authority beyond official Chinese structures. Tibetans reject him, the global Buddhist community ignores him, and the world remembers the child who vanished. This failure haunts Beijing’s plans for the Dalai Lama’s succession," he added.

According to the report, reincarnation in Tibetan Buddhism is a spiritual recognition rooted in centuries of tradition, not a bureaucratic process, with the Dalai Lama having declared that he will not allow the succession process to come under Chinese control.

“That single statement strips Beijing of its leverage. No decree, no regulation, no 'patriotic education' campaign can compel Tibetans to accept a Party-approved Dalai Lama. The institution itself has made clear that legitimacy flows from religious practice, not political fiat,” it noted.

Highlighting that China’s concern extends beyond Tibet, the report said that the Dalai Lama is a "global figure" whose teachings span from Dharamsala to New York, from Tokyo to Sao Paulo. It added that his successor will likely be recognised by Buddhist communities globally, beyond the reach of Chinese control.

“Beijing fears that the next Dalai Lama will become a rallying point for Tibetans in exile and a symbol of resistance inside Tibet. Worse, the international community may treat him as authentic, leaving China’s chosen candidate isolated and irrelevant,” the report stated.

It further highlighted that the CCP’s anxiety is driven by the “strategic costs of failure”, noting that a contested succession would lay bare China's lack of control over Tibetan religion, while weakening its soft power in Buddhist Asia, and drawing criticism from multilateral forums.