Rupee may touch 100 per US dollar by June 2027

The Indian rupee could reach 100 against the US dollar by June 2027 despite recent stability, a report said on Wednesday, adding that slowdown in the global artificial intelligence investment cycle and a reversal of recent foreign portfolio investor outflows could redirect global financial savings towards India.

Potential shift in global capital flows could potentially bring the financeable current account deficit (CAD) back to 0.8 per cent of GDP, the report from Axis Bank Research said.

India's foreign exchange reserve adequacy remains low across both traditional measures and the IMF's Assessing Reserve Adequacy (ARA) metric, indicating the need to rebuild buffers.

The report's forecast of INR trajectory underpins prediction that underlying fundamentals are expected to outweigh recent currency momentum.

The report also pointed to sizeable external liabilities as a concern. It noted that the Reserve Bank of India holds significant short foreign exchange positions, with approximately $200 billion in maturities exceeding one year, including around $150 billion in the three-to-five-year maturity bucket.

A decline in global savings, alongside rising government debt amid geopolitical conflicts, could limit the availability of capital seeking investment opportunities in Indian assets.

The report highlighted that the rupee began losing value even when the current account deficit was low, suggesting that a decline in crude prices alone may not meaningfully alter the currency outlook.

“Continued squeezing of global savings owing to fading of the peace dividend also limits availability of savings to chase India assets,” the report noted.

Another report said that India's economy is likely to maintain strong growth momentum in the Q2 FY27 despite global uncertainties, with gross domestic product likely to expand by around 7.8 per cent, supported by resilient domestic demand, corporate performance and strong credit growth.