Can Vijayan rewrite Kerala politics at 81?

As he approaches 81, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan stands at a pivotal juncture in his political career. Having already scripted history by becoming Kerala’s first Chief Minister to secure two consecutive terms, Vijayan now faces a far more complex terrain -- one where authority, longevity, and voter fatigue intersect.

His rise to the top was itself unconventional.

In 2016, Vijayan did not lead the Left Democratic Front’s campaign; that role belonged to his arch-rival and senior leader V.S. Achuthanandan. Yet, once the results were declared, Vijayan swiftly emerged from the shadows, edged out the veteran leader, and assumed the chief minister’s office.

With Achuthanandan sidelined, Vijayan -- drawing on his long tenure as CPI(M) state secretary -- consolidated unprecedented control over both the party and the government. The long-held perception in Kerala politics that the party secretary wielded greater authority than the chief minister was decisively overturned.

The Covid-19 pandemic proved a crucial turning point. Vijayan leveraged crisis governance, welfare outreach, and an effective public communication strategy to establish a “new normal” of strong, centralised leadership. The distribution of food kits and a carefully curated administrative image helped neutralise the political fallout from the gold smuggling case, which saw his own principal secretary, M. Sivasankar, jailed.

In 2021, voters rewarded the Left Democratic Front with a resounding mandate, granting Vijayan a historic second term.

That second term, however, has been far less forgiving.

Vijayan, his son, and his daughter have all come under scrutiny from national investigative agencies, while the Sabarimala-linked gold case has sent four senior Left leaders to jail and continues to simmer politically. Concerns over Vijayan’s health, coupled with the first visible signs of dissent from his political stronghold of Kannur, have further dented his aura of invincibility.

Electoral setbacks have compounded the pressure. The Left’s poor performance in the December local body elections, the defection of three-time MLA Ayisha Potti to the Congress, and reports of grassroots-level desertions have unsettled the party organisation.

With Assembly elections approaching and a Congress-led UDF buoyed by recent gains, Vijayan -- despite talk within party circles of a “Vijayan 3” -- is, for the first time in years, visibly under strain.

The coming weeks will reveal whether Kerala’s most dominant chief minister can once again bend political gravity -- or finally be constrained by it.